Saturday, March 04, 2006

Oscar Picks

In a year in review post, I'd like to offer some Oscar predictions (Kind of a follow-up on Max's post).

Best film: Crash (in an "upset" pick over BBM)
Best actress: Huffman-Transamerica
Best actor: Hoffman-Capote (review forthcoming)
Supporting Actor: Clooney-Syriana (in a thanks for a year's worth of good work award)
Supporting Actress: Weisz-Constant Gardener
Director: Ang Lee-BBM
Adapted Screenplay: BBM
Original SP: Crash
Cinematography: BBM

I think that's all the big ones.

Max, I do think you sell Dillon a bit short. You are right, Howard is a deserving pick. Have yet to see Hustle and Flow, but he was awesome in Crash.


Blogger Omri noted on 3/04/2006 05:35:00 PM that...

Agree with most of those picks. But for best movie, the contrarians are wrong and the odds-makers are right: BBM is going to win. I think you're picking Crash because it cleaned up at the SAG - which is a good arg - but the entire Academy (including all of the directors who will have just finished unanimously choosing Ang Lee for Best Director) gets to vote on Best Film. It'll be BBM.  

Blogger ronvon2 noted on 3/04/2006 11:58:00 PM that...

I think Oscar voters will go split ticket to "endorse" as many of the "liberal" films as possible (that's why Clonney get the nod for Syriana). I believe Crash will get shut out in most of the big awards, hence Best Film is the "make-up" award. And Lee gets the Award for BBM.  

Blogger Paul Johnson noted on 3/05/2006 12:57:00 PM that...

I can't even tell if you seriously think they are voting for liberal movies, or if you are just mocking Omri. Either way, kudos.

I agree with most of your picks, Ron, except I think Brokeback wins best picture, and Reese Witherspoon wins for Walk the Line. I still desperately need to see Capote.  

Blogger maxwell noted on 3/05/2006 05:29:00 PM that...

my picks (we don't do basketball drafts in our house) . . .

Actor - ledger, BBM
Actor, supporting - Clooney (I think Dillon will win, but I don't think he should)
Actress - Witherspoon WTL
Actress, supporting Mcdormand
directing bbm
documentary - murderball
score - memoirs of geisha
song - Ron's theme song: "it's hard out here for a pimp" - H& F
Best picture bbm
sound king kong
screenplay bbm
screeplay original crash  

Blogger Omri noted on 3/05/2006 07:05:00 PM that...

I also can't tell whether Ron is being sarcastic or not. At a minimum, the Academy can't split tickets because actors voting on best actor can't predict how directors voting on best director will vote. Ron - knowing this - is obviously being sarcastic. On the other hand, perhaps PJ would be interested in a slightly more carefully worded advocacy. Re "I can't even tell if you seriously think they are voting for liberal movies" - are you implying that there are no political undertones to this year's Oscar nominations? Before answering that, please find me the "foreign country" of Palestine on a map. This isn't a minor point - categories we choose reflect political ideologies, and the definition for a foreign film nomination is the following:

"1. The film must be first released in the country submitting the film between November 1, 2002 and September 30, 2003, and first publicly exhibited by means of 35mm or 70mm film for at least seven consecutive days in a commercial motion picture theater for the profit of the producer and exhibitor, advertised and exploited during its eligibility run in a manner considered normal and customary to the industry. The picture need not have been released in the United States."

Should the Academy really be choosing an advocacy (treating Palestine as a recognized nation-state) that not even the most strident defenders of Palestinian rights would seriously make? Actually, bracket that question - forget whether they should be doing it or not. New question: can the Academy actually chose that advocacy and still claim, pace PJ, not to be endorsing Leftist positions through their nominations?  

Blogger ronvon2 noted on 3/05/2006 07:32:00 PM that...

Omri, towing the party line...predictable...not to say you are wrong.

I mean split ticket metaphorically (as the Academy as whole will split, but not in actual voting practice) and to some degree sincerely. Yes, each wing of the academy only vote for their peers. But everyone votes for Best Picture. I can see the acting wing, say, vote for Clooney and then vote Crash as a tour de force of acting prowess (except for Dillon, of course:). Hence, a practice of split ticket voting.  

Blogger Omri noted on 3/05/2006 08:36:00 PM that...

Ron: Agreed, especially about the acting wing representing "interest group voting" (Mickey Kaus actually rolled that this would put Good Night and Good Luck into spoiler range for BBM, before someone reminded him that Crash is the SAG favorite, not GNGL). All I was saying is that split ticket voting can't explain Director/Acting calculations. They _can_ explain Acting/Best Picture votes, and in fact I think they will (which makes Clooney's joke before he slipped into that "gosh we rock" masturbation even funnier).

At least you recognize that pointing out that I'm making a predictable argument doesn't make it either more or less correct. Which begs the question of why you'd throw in a random ad-hom-esque line if it doesn't advance the discussion, but thankfully I have tough skin ;-)

Man, Ben Stiller just SUCKED.  

Blogger ronvon2 noted on 3/05/2006 11:39:00 PM that...

Well...he does suffer from the same malady that plagues Jon Stewart...  

Blogger paroske noted on 3/06/2006 06:32:00 PM that...

Didn't watch. Didn't care. I was afraid to admit it before, but a couple days ago I realized that the Oscar's are stupid. They are never right (even if they were right this time).


Blogger ronvon2 noted on 3/06/2006 06:58:00 PM that...

Blah Blah Blah, Look at me, I'm so big. You silly people and your awards shows.